The V-Dem Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, has released its 2025 annual report, offering one of the most comprehensive snapshots of democracy worldwide. Assessing 179 countries across seven principles—electoral, liberal, majoritarian, consensual, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian—the report paints a sobering picture: democracy is shrinking, autocracy is spreading, and the balance of global governance is tilting.
Democracies in Decline, Autocracies on the Rise
One of the starkest findings: for the first time in years, autocracies now outnumber democracies. The world counts 91 autocracies (56 electoral and 35 closed) compared to just 88 democracies (29 liberal and 59 electoral). Countries like Belarus, Gabon, Lebanon, and Niger shifted from electoral autocracies into fully closed systems, cementing the trend.
This confirms what the report calls the “third wave of autocratization,” a steady erosion of democratic institutions with 45 countries sliding backward and only 19 moving toward democratization.
Liberal Democracy: An Endangered Species
Liberal democracies—the rarest form of governance—have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009, with just 29 countries holding that status. The numbers translate into demographics: fewer than 12% of people worldwide live under liberal democratic systems, the smallest proportion in half a century.
By contrast, 5.8 billion people—72% of humanity—now live under autocracy, whether electoral or closed. The remaining 17% live in electoral democracies such as Brazil, Mexico, and Nigeria, but these are fragile and often contested.
The Grey Zones
Not all regimes fit neatly into boxes. The report highlights 17 “grey zone regimes”, caught between flawed democracy and soft authoritarianism. On the lower edge of democracy are Albania, Kenya, Mexico, and Nigeria; on the upper edge of autocracy are Benin, Guyana, Indonesia, Mauritius, and Mongolia. In these liminal cases, classification remains fluid and uncertain—underscoring the fragility of governance structures worldwide.
A World of Aristocracies
If democracy is retreating, what is advancing? The report suggests we are not seeing a return of 20th-century dictatorships but rather the spread of modern aristocracies of power—narrow elites consolidating control under electoral facades, constitutional tweaks, and manipulated institutions. The architecture of democracy remains in place in many states, but its spirit is hollowed out.
The result is a world less democratic than at any point in the past five decades—one where the language of elections and participation often masks the rise of entrenched, insulated ruling classes.
References:
- https://www.democracywithoutborders.org/36317/autocracies-outnumber-democracies-for-the-first-time-in-20-years-v-dem/
- https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2024/region-reordered-autocracy-and-democracy
- https://www.undp.org/future-development/signals-spotlight-2023/when-democracies-autocratise
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