Guyana has suddenly emerged as one of the world’s most promising oil frontiers. By 2027, its crude production could surpass Iran’s, placing this small South American country at the center of a struggle that blends energy, geopolitics, and the threat of war. Venezuela’s claim over Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region has heightened tensions, turning the country into a flashpoint in the global contest for resources—and for who writes the rules of the 21st-century energy order.
From Backwater to Boomtown
Since ExxonMobil’s 2015 discovery of an estimated 11 billion
barrels of offshore reserves, Guyana has become the fastest-growing oil
producer in the world. The transformation is staggering: in 2022, its GDP
jumped 63.3%, followed by 33.8% in 2023, and another 43.6% in 2024, according
to the World Bank. Today, Guyana pumps roughly 650,000 barrels of oil daily. By
2035, output is expected to reach 2 million barrels per day—matching what
Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela together produced
in 2022.
The International Monetary Fund has highlighted Guyana as
having the world’s highest GDP growth rate between 2022 and 2024. But whether
this oil boom becomes a blessing or a curse depends on how well the government
manages its windfall. With poverty still widespread, demands are growing for
oil revenues to fund hospitals, schools, and roads rather than simply filling
the coffers of foreign shareholders.
The Shadow of Venezuela
Guyana’s bonanza has not gone unnoticed in Caracas.
Venezuela has long claimed sovereignty over the Essequibo region—two-thirds of
Guyana’s national territory, home to about 125,000 people, gold reserves, and
key oil blocks. The dispute dates back to an 1899 arbitration award, which
granted the area to British Guiana. Caracas has never accepted that decision.
In 2024, Venezuela’s National Assembly escalated matters by
declaring a new “State of Guayana Esequiba.” Its government then presented
evidence to the International Court of Justice, while simultaneously rejecting
the ICJ’s jurisdiction. Guyana, calling the claim an “existential threat,” has
turned to its allies for support.
Washington’s New Ally
Unable to defend itself alone, Guyana has leaned heavily on
the United States and its partners. British naval vessels have docked in
Georgetown, and U.S. forces have held joint exercises on Guyanese soil.
Trinidad and Tobago has even voiced support for U.S. intervention in the event
of a Venezuelan incursion. With ExxonMobil and other American firms deeply
invested, Washington has a vested interest in protecting Guyana—not just for
oil, but also as a strategic counterweight to Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
Analysts doubt the standoff will escalate into open war, but
the risk is real. Any military misstep would drag U.S. energy assets—and by
extension, U.S. credibility—into the conflict.
The U.S.-China Tug of War
Beyond Venezuela, Guyana finds itself pulled between the
world’s two superpowers. American corporations dominate the oil sector, while
Chinese investment is reshaping Guyana’s infrastructure. Beijing is building
the new Demerara River bridge in Georgetown, part of a broader strategy to
expand its footprint in what has traditionally been considered Washington’s
backyard.
For now, President Irfaan Ali appears closer to Washington,
frequently traveling to the U.S. and hosting senior American officials. Yet he
has also welcomed Chinese capital. Analysts suggest Guyana will avoid choosing
sides, instead leveraging both powers to maximize its gains.
Boom or Breakdown?
Guyana’s oil-driven rise is as precarious as it is
remarkable. The coming elections will test whether its institutions can
withstand the strains of sudden wealth, ethnic polarization, and foreign
interference. If managed transparently, Guyana could become a model for how
resource-rich states harness prosperity without sacrificing democracy. If
mismanaged, it risks following the path of Venezuela, where oil became a curse.
The world is watching. Guyana is no longer a forgotten
corner of South America—it is now a prize in the new great game of energy, war,
and power.
References:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/01/americas/guyana-elections-oil-venezuela-china-intl-latam
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